Winter weather predictions by the Farmer’s Almanac, La Nina effect and Natural Gas Price

When looking for weather conditions for the approaching winter I usually to look to the Farmer’s Almanac.   The Almanac is usually 80% accurate even with predictions made 18 months in advance.   Currently, we have been and will continue to be effected by La Nina, the flipside to El Nino.  Being ever vigilant to the day to day weather, working in the oil & gas industry plus being a financial junkie, over the last 18-24 mos it appears the natural gas price is generally another  predictor of the weather 60-90 days out.   At least it has been.  However, wanting to get a holistic predication looked to ole reliable Farmer’s Almanac for their prediction which is: Farmer’s Almanac -Mid Atlantic and OH Valley Region forecast NOVEMBER 2017: temperature 45° (2° below avg.); precipitation 8.5" (5" above avg.); Nov 1-3: Rainy, mild; Nov 4-6: Sunny, cool; Nov 7-11: Heavy rain, then sunny, cool; Nov 12-18: Rain, then sunny, chilly; Nov 19-24: Rainy periods, cool; Nov 25-30: Rain and wet snow north; sunny, mild south. DECEMBER 2017: temperature 42° (1° above avg. north, 5° above south); precipitation 4" (1" above avg.); Dec 1-4: Rainy, mild; Dec 5-11: Rain, then sunny, cold; Dec 12-20: Rainy periods, mild; Dec 21-23: Sunny, cold; Dec 24-27: Rainy, mild; Dec 28-31: Snow, then sunny, cold. THEN, to current forecasting for the La Nina effect: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said a weak La Nina has formed and is expected to stick around for several months- much longer than last year. La Nina is a natural cooling of parts of the Pacific that alters weather patterns around the globe.  La Nina is well known to be a major disruptor of weather patterns.  Because La Nina shifts storm tracks, it often brings more snow in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.   Typically the snowfall is generally slightly above average snowfall.  However, the New England states are often recipients of more snow. Speaking of the New England region they may be hampered by colder and heavier snowfall than the Appalachian region however, this region has little effect on natural gas prices.  The New England states get their natural gas from foreign ships that sit on their coastline and transports natural gas from foreign counties via pipeline which is much more costly.   I guess they’d rather buy the foreign natural gas than support pipelines to bring the Marcellus gas at a lower cost. As for the commodity price of nat gas, short term it appears to decrease with a slight increase early 2018. Nat Gas prices down 30% ytd; nat gas inventories down 182 Billion cubic feet from last year (as reported by CNBC 12.21.17).  The nat gas price seems to align with both Farmer’s Almanac and the La Nina effect – for now.   However, with aggressive efforts to bring pipelines on line, exports of nat gas increasing and nat gas powered electric grids coming on line; this may be the last year the price of nat gas could be viewed as a predictor of the weather.   Stay tuned, 2018 will be a rock n’ roll year for natural gas emerging opportunities. Joseph Barone President Shale Directories, LLC www.shaledirectories.com jbarone@shaledirectories.com

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