If It’s About Upstate Jobs, It Also Has to Be About Natural Gas

Richard Downey
Unatego Area Landowners Association

    

    

Otsego County is doing its best to create Upstate jobs, but without the gas and pipelines Pennsylvania has and the fracking Cuomo denies, it’s all uphill.

Otsego County,’s population has flatlined, grown older, and has lost the young adults who bring life to our communities and children to our schools. These young adults need good jobs and they’re not finding them here. Unfortunately. these conditions are not unusual in rural America.

Otsego’s elected officials and the business community have taken action and revamped the county’s Industrial Development Agency to concentrate on job creation through economic development. There has been some slow progress. Last month New York City and Northern Virginia got economic booster shots when Amazon chose them in their nationwide search for headquarters expansion.

There’s no illusion here that Amazon would ever follow Chobani Yogurt and choose a small Upstate New York County for for its springboard to the future. The baseline needs are different; cows versus the computerati. However, many of the selection criteria are the same.

In the end, Otsego County’s biggest impediment to economic growth is its inability to access cheap energy. That means GAS.

Otsego County wants jobs: New York City likewise. Recently, Amazon chose NYC and Northern Virginia for their new headquarters sites, each employing 25,000 people with an average salary of $150,000. Nice work if you can get it, and 238 localities went for it. Assuming the search wasn’t rigged, what were the criteria for selection?

Adjusted for scale and to specifics related to the nature and culture of Big Tech, Amazon’s selection criteria were similar to those assessed by Otsego Now, our local Industrial Development Agency (IDA). Logistically, both note the importance of proximity to airports, rail, and interstates. Both stress “shovel readiness.” ie., access roads, utilities, and zoning ready to go on Day One.

Money talks. Amazon and Otsego Now both acknowledge incentives are needed in closing the deal; $5.5 billion in City and State money to Amazon in NYC, a more modest PILOT (Payment In Lieu Of Taxes) to firms relocating in Otsego County.

Otsego is a good place to live and work. Want a bagel with schmear? You got it! A church supper with the neighbors. Bring a dish-to-pass! From a belly flop in a winter lake to a summer opera at Glimmerglass, Otsego has it all.

Amazon calls this criteria “Diverse Culture” and tells us that’s what their employees want. Under another broad criteria, “Community,” Amazon found its employees wanted to further their educations and have access to music and the arts. Amazon chose accordingly. More than most rural counties. Otsego has these amenities.

Under the criteria “Labor Force” Amazon chose catchment areas of at least one million people with follow-up projections of the number tech-savvy potential employees. Both NYC and Northern Virginia had 250,000 possible hires, approximately 20% recent grads with tech degrees. Obviously Otsego County wouldn’t have met Amazon’s specific needs but our labor force is ample and educated.

Otsego County would also have fared poorly under the criteria of “Connectivity.” Amazon rated each geographical applicant on their fiber and cell service capacity. Can you hear me now, Otsego? The answer would be, “No!”

“Sustainability,” a virtue-signaling concept in the Facebook/Amazon/ Netflicks/Google (FANG) world, was another criteria. Amazon’s methods to attain this goal aren’t clear. Don’t expect 600 foot windmills lining the East River. Rooftop solar is unlikely to power the product of 25,000 workers. However, the Indian Point nuclear facility, Con Edison, and Brooklyn Union Gas will still provide .

Wisely, Otsego wasn’t among the 238 applicants for Amazon’x headquarters expansion. However, in spite of New York’s high taxes and excessive regulation, the County does have most of the “right stuff” — the logistics, a civic willingness to get things done (including PILOTS), a labor force, a culture and community able to attract people from far and wide. We fail on fiber and cell phone connectivity. We also fail on utility infrastructure. We need the availability of affordable energy. That means gas.

Case in point. Recently a company met with Otsego officials to discuss a distribution center site being prepared in Schenevus. First question: is gas available? The pipeline situation was explained. New York has a Governor who has banned gas and obstructed new infrastructure. Possible alternatives were presented. As one of the participants said, “The air went out of the room.” The meeting continued but it was over. With the key incentive off the table, we’ll never know how many jobs Otsego lost.

We do know some of the losses through our IDA. A local landmark restaurant wanted to bottle its sauce locally but had to look elsewhere due to the lack of affordable energy — gas. A projected 300 jobs lost. A Chinese company did a feasibility study with the IDA. It rejected the intended site due to the lack of gas. Another 175 jobs lost. These are two opportunities were we know our losses. Unknown are the losses from companies who reject Otsego County out of hand — no gas.

The comparative numbers on energy costs tells it all. Virginia’s electric utility regulator recently listed the costs of wholesale electricity by source. Offshore wind costs 13.1 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh). Onshore wind costs 9.4 cents per kWh. It costs 5.7 cents for new solar. Gas clocks in at 3 cents wholesale. The use of gas for heat presents similar savings.

If we want to jump-start job growth in Upstate New York, we’ll need the availability of gas. It’s that simple. Nice work, if we can get it, but not likely anytime soon with Andrew Cuomo as Governor.

Richard Downey is a retired New York City schoolteacher and a member of the Unatego Board of Education and the Joint Landowners Coalition of New York.

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U.S. Proved Oil, Natural Gas Reserves at All-Time Highs

U.S. proved oil and natural gas reserves hit an “all-time high” – about double their levels from a decade ago – thanks in large part to continued development and exploration of shale and tight oil formations nationwide, according to newly released data from the Energy Information Administration.

Proved reserves are the estimated volume of a hydrocarbon believed to have a 90-percent or greater probability of being recoverable based on geologic and engineering data. Estimates vary from year to year as new discoveries are made, and existing fields are developed and further explored. In recent years, technological advances have increased the ability to access and explore previously unrecoverable shale reserves, expanding the known U.S. supply of oil and natural gas, as EIA explained:

“In 2008, the downward trend for crude oil reversed when innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing were applied to tight oil-bearing formations, such as the Bakken Shale of the Williston basin. The upward trends have continued, and both crude oil and natural gas proved reserves reached new U.S. record levels at Year-End 2017.”

The percentage of natural gas proved shale reserves versus other formations, in particular, increased significantly in the past decade.

According to EIA:

“The share of natural gas from shale compared with total U.S. natural gas proved reserves increased from 62 percent in 2016 to 66 percent in 2017.”

The continued exploration of these formations has led to a greater understanding of their geology – and higher production numbers as a result. EIA estimates production of natural gas from shale increased 9 percent—from 17.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2016 to 18.6 Tcf in 2017.

Similarly, the development of shale and tight oil formations since 2008 has reversed the standing of American energy, and propelled the United States past Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading crude oil producer as of this year for the first time since February 1999.

According to EIA, as of December 31, 2017, tight plays accounted for 48 of all U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves. From 2016 to 2017, the proved crude oil reserves in these formations increased 28.4 percent, with the largest gains coming from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.

The United States beat its 1970 record of 39 billion barrels of proved crude oil in 2017.

Gains in crude oil reserves came on the back of exploration in the Southwest region. Last year, the Wolfcamp/Bone Spring shale play in the Permian Basin surpassed the Bakken/Three Forks play in the Williston Basin to become the largest oil-producing tight play.

And 2017 reaffirmed everything really is bigger in Texas: The Lone Star state added 3.3 billion barrels of crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves, the largest net increase of all states. The rise was “a result of increased prices and development in the Permian Basin of the Spraberry Trend and the Wolfcamp/Bone Spring shale play,” according to EIA.

New Mexico, meanwhile, produced the next largest net gains in crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves, with a 1-billion-barrel increase over 2016.

U.S. proved natural gas reserves grew 19 percent from 2014 to 2017, when the previous record of 388.8 trillion cubic feet was set.

Just as the Southwest is driving America’s rise as a leader in crude oil – both in production and proved reserves – the Northeast region is propelling the record-setting growth on the natural gas side. According to EIA:

“Producers in Pennsylvania added 28.1 Tcf of natural gas proved reserves, the largest net increase of all states in 2017, as a result of increased prices and development of the Marcellus and Utica shale plays.”

In fact, the United States – already the world’s leading producer of natural gas – is projected to supply 40 percent of total global gas growth to 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook.

Conclusion

The United States has more proved reserves than ever before, and is producing oil and natural gas at levels unfathomable a decade ago. As the new data show, our geology is providing a clear rebuke of any sort of “peak oil” narrative.

https://www.shaledirectories.com/blog/u-s-proved-oil-natural-gas-reserves-at-all-time-highs/

Those French Fuel Riots and the “Great Wall of Cuomo”

Tom Shepstone
Shepstone Management Company, Inc.

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The French fuel riots demonstrate what can happen when ordinary people are denied the basic necessities of life by “let them eat cake” elitists with agendas.

The French Revolution is hardly a thing to be admired, given its ultimate consequences, but it was the natural result of a “let them eat cake” elitist mentality on the part the country’s monarchs. Ironically, Louis XVI, was a liberal monarch by the day’s standards, but he was too slow to understand the force of what was happening and had a completely tone-deaf wife. They both lost their heads as a result.

Today, there is another French revolution of sorts taking place as “Yellow Vest” protesters and anarchist rioters are turning Paris upside down to oppose fuel prices increases mandated by a similarly tone-deaf French President Macron. The President is committed to the climate change battle because that’s what European elites are expected to do and has implemented a number of measures designed to discourage driving and the like by French “roturiers” (commoners) as the upper classes fly to global warming conferences in private jets. The French people are having none of it.

Could New Englanders revolt in a similar way when high natural gas prices hit again or the heat goes off due to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s pipeline obstruction? Could the “Great Wall of Cuomo” come tumbling down, rhetorically speaking, as New Englanders armed with pitchforks attack?

Tearing down the Berlin Wall. Could this be New Englanders and New Yorkers tearing down the “Great Wall of Cuomo” as some label his pipeline obstruction?

The pitchfork image, of course, is way out of date. Massachusetts seems to be mostly home these days to stuffy elitist types whose thoughts are in complete sync with the New York urban gentry class to whom Cuomo constantly panders. They’re more likely to be holding plastic placards aloft to dishonestly signal their virtues on the subject of fossil fuels, than pitchforks. Crisis has a way of changing attitudes, though, doesn’t it?

Yes, when the wallet is emptied, the heat can’t be turned up and there’s only government to blame, people of every class tend to get angry and look for scapegoats. Andrew “Corruptocrat” Cuomo is nothing if not a perfect scapegoat. No one especially likes or trusts the man. He simply has the power for the moment and in his Machiavellian world that’s all that matters.

As long as things are going well for the elites, urban New Yorkers tolerate him and there aren’t enough upstaters to make a difference. He gets by quite nicely by positioning himself as the alternative to far-left wackos and other spineless, vacuous opponents. Will they tolerate him when things go bad, though? I doubt it. And, New Englanders surely have no debt to him. It’s a recipe for political disaster when things go wrong and they’re going very wrong.

Here’s what I mean, from Energy Global’s World Pipelines:

From New York to Maine, the lacking natural gas infrastructure will have a huge impact on consumers’ natural gas and power prices this winter, write Chris Amstutz, Risk Management Associate, and Matthew Mattingly, Director of Natural Gas Services, at Choice Energy Services (USA)…

It is no secret that politics have played a heavy hand in setting up this situation. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has been active in denying new energy infrastructure in his state. This year alone we have seen the denial of the William’s Constitution pipeline and the William’s Transco expansion. These projects would have collectively brought about 1 billion ft³/d in new supply New York, while freeing up additional supply to New England…

The Eversource project would expand the Algonquin pipeline system through Connecticut and would bring an additional 1 billion ft³/d in supply to the region. It is uncertain as to whether this project will be approved, but a supply shortage this winter would certainly help its chances. Planned investment through New York to New England is likely to slow further, as the Great Wall of Cuomo will likely be continued after the recent election.

So how dire is the situation this winter? For power generation, ISO New England is openly acknowledging that they are one supply disruption away from issuing rolling black out orders in the region, if an extended cold event were to occur. Last year during the New Year’s Day arctic plunge, ISO operators were forced to bring on aging, and potentially unreliable, coal fired plants to meet base load electricity demand. It is estimated that during the peak of winter cold,

New England uses 4.5 billion ft³/d of natural gas. There are currently enough pipelines to supply 4.7 billion ft³/d of gas. Without additional pipelines, every state to the northeast of New York will continue to rely on the Algonquin and Tennessee pipelines for domestic supply. Therefore, the remainder of supply comes from Canada, and from the LNG facility in Everett, Massachusetts. It is also important to note that any LNG imports will have to be from other countries at a heavy premium (Russia mostly) due to the Jones Act of 1920…

Historically, how elevated can prices get? Last January we saw daily Transco Z6 NNY gas prices top US$125 MMBtu, and daily Algonquin prices top US$79 MMBtu. With storage levels in the region 10 – 20% lower than last year at this time, the situation could be much worse assuming a similar type of cold event. Real-time power pricing in Massachusetts also spiked to over US$500/MWh.

The straight average of Mass Hub Real Time power for the month of January 2018 was US$108/MWh. These prices serve as a reminder to end users of the importance of hedging against winter uncertainty and the volatility that follows. Both ISO-NE and natural gas suppliers are going into the winter with the mentality of “not if, but when” will natural gas deliverability constraints become an issue.

The “Great Wall of Cuomo” is a nice description of what Corrupotcrat has done. I suspect he hoped FERC would overrule him so he’s win both ways but in the case of the Constitution Pipeline that didn’t happen, at least not yet. The courts and FERC did rescue him from the Millennium and Northern Access situations but the main pipeline needed to serve New England was the Constitution and his political play has left him entrapped on that one. Perhaps the Feds will yet save his rear end on that one, but there’s no guarantee.

If they don’t save him, we may see yellow-vested New Yorkers and New Englanders attacking the “Great Wall of Cuomo” with picks and crowbars, if not pitchforks, just as happened to the Berlin Wall.

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Germany Plans To Increase Wind, Solar Power Production

Germany intends to increase energy production from wind and solar farms by a further 8 gigawatts (GW) over the next three years as the government tries to compensate for its decision to abandon strict emissions targets. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and their Social Democrat (SPD) junior coalition partners this year dropped plans to lower CO2 emissions by 40% from 1990 levels by 2020. The decision was based on expectations that Germany would miss its national emissions target for 2020 without any additional measures because of strong economic growth and higher than expected immigration.

https://www.shaledirectories.com/blog/germany-plans-to-increase-wind-solar-power-production/

More Risk from Falling Downstairs Than Delaware County Pipelines

Jim Willis
Editor & Publisher, Marcellus Drilling News (MDN)

 

Mariner East and Adelphia opponents were counting on a study to show the risks of Delaware County pipelines but the results showed they were very very small.

Well this wasn’t supposed to happen.

The Delaware County Council (Pennsylvania) hired a company in July of this year at a cost of $115,000 to conduct an independent risk assessment study of both the Mariner East 2 (ME2) and Adelphia Gateway pipeline projects (both running through Delaware County). The purpose was to assess just how much risk each pipeline poses to residents in the county, a heavily populated Philadelphia suburb.

A group of antis paid $50,000 to Quest Consultants for the same thing. The antis released their “report” in October. Perhaps the antis sensed that the forthcoming independent report wouldn’t paint the same wild, nightmare scenario their fake report paints.

And, right they were. The Council’s study, paid for with taxpayer money and just released, finds residents of Delaware County stand a far better chance of dying from falling down a flight of stairs, a house fire, or a car accident than they do from an explosion from either ME2 or Adelphia.

Here’s some of what the Delaware County Times says (emphasis added):

On Wednesday, Delaware County Emergency Services Director Timothy Boyce submitted the G-2 Integrated Services’ 79-page report “Mariner East 2 Pipeline and Existing Adelphia Pipeline Risk Assessments” to Delaware County Council…

In fact, the report stated that a person is 20 times more like to die from a traffic accident or fall from stairs and 35 times more likely to die from a house fire than from an incident involving the Mariner East 2 pipeline 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

G-2 was asked to do a risk assessment of an accidental release of either the Mariner East 2 or the Adelphia pipelines within Delaware County. Two things they set out to determine were the risk of fatalities in relation to distance from the pipelines and how that risk compares to other common risk sources. The fatality risk was a measure of the likelihood of an individual dying from an accident within the period of a year.

Stretching from Ohio and the Pittsburgh area to Marcus Hook, Mariner East 2 is a 306-mile pipeline that will carry 275,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids, primarily propane, but butane as well. About 11.4 miles of the 20-inch natural gas liquid pipeline is in Delaware County. These materials will be used both domestically and internationally and the line is almost complete.

Adelphia is an 84-mile 18-inch natural gas pipeline that was originally used to transport oil from Marcus Hook to Martins Creek, Pa. According to the report, the northern 34 miles were converted to natural gas in 1996 and the remaining 50 miles are planned to be converted as well. Twelve miles of the Adelphia line are in Delaware County.

G-2 evaluated releases and accidents such as jet fires, flash fires and vapor cloud explosions potentially related to the two pipelines within the Delaware County boundaries…

The five accident consequences studied included discharge rate; ignition; jet fire thermal radiation; flash fire thermal radiation; and vapor cloud explosion overpressure…

Fatalities resulting from these incidents are reliant on various factors including radiation level and exposure time.

G-2 also evaluated the probable frequency of such events by using data from Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration for pipelines with natural gas and ones with highly volatile liquids.

In looking at 2002 to 2017, the PHMSA found that 212 below ground incidents occurred over almost 4.9 million mile-years of line. Of those 128 incidents occurred over that time period with pipelines bigger than 10 inches wide through 28 inches.

In the same report, PHMSA data indicated that 28 incidents occurred in 972,000 mile-years of highly volatile liquid pipelines between 2002 and 2018.

County officials are working with the experts to present the findings of this report at a meeting in the next few weeks.

For more great articles on natural gas development every single business day, subscribe to Marcellus Drilling News using this convenient link.

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Equities Fund Brenham Capital To Shut As Energy Stocks Plunge

Brenham Capital Management LP, an energy equities fund manager with about $800 million in assets under management, will shut after two years of losses, its founder said in a letter to investors Nov. 30. The Dallas-based fund will be liquidated and investor capital will be returned at the end of the year, according to the letter which was reviewed by Reuters. While oil prices rallied to near four-year highs in October, those gains have not extended to energy equities, hurting firms such as Brenham. The Russell 2000 Energy index is down more than 20% this year after falling 17% in 2017.

https://www.shaledirectories.com/blog/equities-fund-brenham-capital-to-shut-as-energy-stocks-plunge/

Natural Gas NOW Picks of the Week – December 1, 2018

Tom Shepstone
Shepstone Management Company, Inc.

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Natural Gas NOW readers pass along a lot of stuff every week about natural gas, fractivist antics, emissions, renewables, and other news relating to energy. As usual, emphasis is added.

Andrew Cuomo’s Renewable Fiasco Runs Into Reality

Andrew Cuomo, at the instigation of the NRDC gang, made a foolish pledge a few years ago to make sure 50% of the state’s electricity will come from renewables by 2030. It might have seemed remotely feasible because New York has access to so much hydro-electric power but, as I have said many times, solar and wind projects tend to engender fierce NIMBY opposition. That’s exactly what’s happened, leading to still further foolishness, according to Robert Bryce who offered this in a New York Post article:

he New York State Energy Research and Development Authority released its “offshore-wind master plan.” The agency said it was “charting a course to 2,400 megawatts” of offshore capacity to be installed by 2030. That much capacity (roughly twice as much as now exists in all of Denmark) will require installing hundreds of platforms over more than 300 square miles of ocean in some of the most navigated, and heavily fished, waters on the Eastern Seaboard.

It will also be enormously expensive. According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, by 2022 producing a megawatt hour of electricity from offshore wind will cost a whopping $145.90.

Offshore wind promoters claim costs are declining. Maybe so. But according to the New York Independent System Operator, the average cost of wholesale electricity in the state last year was $36.56. Thus, Cuomo’s presidential ambitions will require New York consumers to pay roughly four times as much for offshore electricity as they currently pay for juice from conventional generators.

Why is the governor pushing so hard for offshore wind? The answer’s simple: The rural backlash against Big Wind is growing daily.

Just a few hours after NYSERDA released its plan, the Somerset town board unanimously banned industrial wind turbines. The town (population: 2,700) is actively opposing the proposed 200-megawatt Lighthouse Wind project, which, if built, would be one of the largest onshore-wind facilities in the Northeast…

Numerous other small communities are fighting the encroachment of Big Wind. In the Thousand Islands region, towns like Cape Vincent and Clayton have been fending off wind projects for years. Last May, the town of Clayton approved an amendment to its zoning ordinance that bans all commercial wind projects.

Last September, the Fort Drum Regional Liaison Organization announced its opposition to eight proposed onshore-wind projects due to the deleterious effect those projects could have on radar systems and military aviation…

The onshore backlash has left Cuomo with no choice but to move his renewable-energy obsession offshore… but plenty of fishermen… are none too happy at the prospect of having hundreds of offshore platforms obstruct their fishing.

To protect their interests, fishermen and fishmongers from New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have filed a federal lawsuit to block an offshore wind lease won by Norwegian oil company Statoil ASA, at the site of one of the best squid and scallop fisheries on the Eastern Seaboard. That lawsuit is still pending.

In short, Cuomo’s push for offshore wind shows how desperate he is to show his pals at the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club how much he loves renewable energy. Never mind that New York’s electricity prices are already 40 percent higher than the US average or that his offshore scheme will send those rates even higher.

Bryce gets it right. This is nonsense—very expensive nonsense—promoted by those with special interest agendas who don’t give a damn about the impacts on other New Yorkers.

And, Cuomo and the NRDC Gang Are
Selling Out the Adirondacks for the Agenda

If you thought Robert Bryce was overstating the opposition to Cuomo’s solar and wind plans or that the NRDC gang is all about protecting the Adirondacks, check out this letter to the editor in the Adirondack Daily Enterprise (excerpts):

Are you aware the Adirondack Park Agency has quietly made a move toward embracing industrial wind and solar development inside the Blue Line in its Nov. 9 “Policy on Renewable Energy Production and Energy Supply Guidance” document? We believe the impact of this decision would scar the Adirondacks forever…

Click image for the reality

Learn what Gov. Cuomo’s “50 by 30” plan really means for the North Country and the Adirondacks…

Urge your local government to adopt a moratorium on wind and solar development to allow them time to research and create laws that will protect you from many negative health, environmental and economic impacts…

For more information visit nnywind.com or Facebook.com/CitizensForRuralPreservation.

And, you thought the NRDC gang just wanted save the wilderness.

Perry to New York: It’s Pipelines or Russia

S&P Global Platts reports that US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry spoke to the Consumer Energy Alliance this week and sent another strong message to FERC, New York and states who would deny energy to New England and make it dependent on Russian LNG:

When Perry spoke at a House of Representatives Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing in May, he questioned whether “states have the right to block a pipeline across their state that will have a national security implication or an economic implication on individuals.”

On Thursday, Perry was asked to weigh in on New England’s infrastructure constraints. “Why in the world today, with America being the number one oil and gas producing country in the world, would Boston and the Northeast have to have to rely upon gas from Russia? I don’t get that,” he said.

He was likely referring to the offloading of a tanker originating from Russia’s Yamal plant during a cold snap last winter to replenish stocks at the Distrigas LNG terminal in Boston. New England leans on imported LNG to supply power plants during cold weather when the region’s gas pipeline capacity is dedicated to home heating…

The ship that brought Russian LNG to Boston

Perry said politics in New York make it very difficult for US-produced gas to travel across the state. On a recent trip to Ukraine, Perry talked up US LNG as an alternative to Russian gas, “because the Russians are not necessarily reliable,” he said, spurring chuckles from the audience.“I would suggest that those that are making decisions in the United States that think somehow or another Russian gas is more reliable than US-produced gas, they might want to think about that,” he saidTwo major projects have been blocked by New York — Williams’ 121-mile, 650 MMcf/d Constitution Pipeline (CP13-499), and National Fuel Gas Supply and Empire Pipeline ‘s 97-mile, 497 MMcf/d Northern Access 2016 project (CP15-115). Both were denied water quality certifications. But FERC recently waived New York’s Clean Water Act Section 401 review for Northern Access on the grounds that state regulators took too long to act.

Right on, Rick!

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